Auction Oracle v0.1.0: Release Report (Phase 9)

Date: 2026-11-06. Scope: a local Windows desktop release. Size: about 3,700 lines of Python, 1,250 lines of UI and 390 lines of tests.

1. Delivered and verified

Area Status How it was verified
Source audit (8 sources) ✅ Real HTTP calls; matrix in RESEARCH_REPORT.md
Connectors ✅ auctionhouse.fyi, Everloot, Blizzard, ForeverDB, wow.gg, addon, CSV/JSON, manual. Live collection: 10,631 items, 7,840 observations, 7,840 daily candles, 3,908 recipes, 9,635 reagent links. A failing source reports its real HTTP status and never fakes success.
Database ✅ SQLite (WAL), versioned migrations, constraints, idempotent collection, point-in-time reconstruction (market_state_at), online backup and restore with an integrity check, CSV export
Market engine ✅ Scanner, Data Quality Score (item and market), deterministic vendor arbitrage, statistical flips (liquidity and risk filters), anomalies, market depth and slippage (from addon listings)
Forecasting ✅ engine / ⏳ data 5 models plus walk-forward evaluation against naive. Tests: random walk → naive kept; 24 h seasonality → seasonal model wins with MAE < 50% of naive; no look-ahead. On real data every horizon is still INSUFFICIENT_DATA (1 day of history).
Scarcity, demand, events, FEI ✅ Scarcity Score 0–100 with components; demand derived through the recipe graph and sourced events; "Raids unlock" impact covers 156 items; chained Forever Economy Index
Crafting ✅ Recipe profit, best use of an item (recursive transformation), profession planner. 15 of 16 seeded recipes match the game graph and 1 is flagged UNVERIFIED.
Farming ✅ (no routes) Real gold/hour from logged sessions, farming vs buying. No generated routes: no reliable map data source exists.
Wealth ✅ FIFO ledger, liquidation value net of the AH cut, goals with ETA, paper trading kept separate, optimizer (25%/item cap, cash reserve), backtest against a passive baseline, scenarios
Alerts ✅ 7 rule types, daily deduplication, explanation, source, confidence and date on every alert, desktop notifications (browser)
Learning system ✅ Predictions and recommendations resolved against OBSERVED prices; MAE, directional accuracy, interval coverage, calibration, alert precision
AI Strategist ✅ Offline rule engine (tested). Claude mode (claude-opus-5-5, read-only tool use, server-side fallback enabled) is implemented but not tested end to end (no API key available).
8 analysis agents + arbitration ✅ Run in parallel; each buy decision is weighed against forecast and risk objections
UI ✅ 15 pages verified in the browser, zero JS errors including under fast navigation, dark and light themes
WoW addon ✅ code / ⏳ in game TOC 16001, ReplicateItems on manual command, recipe export. Not run in game (no client available). Parser and import are tested with a sample SavedVariables file.
Windows scripts ✅ install, start, diagnose, backup, restore, update (diagnose and backup run successfully)

2. Tests

pytest: 32/32 pass. - data: 8 tests - engines on synthetic markets: 18 tests - API and security: 6 tests

Bugs fixed during the audit: 1. A stale statistics cache shared between databases (the cache key did not include the database). 2. The market module was shadowed by a parameter of the same name in the API. 3. Capital profiles used the wrong unit. 4. Negative amounts were formatted incorrectly. 5. The AH cut was hard-coded in the event scenarios. 6. UI: writes to the DOM after a page change.

3. Security

4. Predictions: honest assessment

History is too short (Forever launched on 2026-11-04; anonymous access gets 7 days), so no model can be claimed to beat naive on real data yet. The app says so explicitly.

Validity also depends on contributors uploading to auctionhouse.fyi: - 2 of 6 markets have data; - the last scan dates from 2026-11-05 20:19 UTC.

So the hourly collection only adds data when a new scan exists. The addon is the way to become independent of that.

5. Known limitations and next steps

Limitation Next step
The Forever AH cut is unknown (5% ESTIMATED) Measure it in game and fix it in Settings
Recipe quantities are unknown outside the Mining/BS seed Run /ao recipes in game, or add a ForeverDB key
Blizzard auctions return 404 The connector is ready and probed at every check
Skill-up colours use a Classic heuristic The addon already records relativeDifficulty, but the planner does not use it yet
Overview and briefing take about 4–5 s Pre-compute after each collection
Native installer (Tauri) not built See DEVELOPER_GUIDE § packaging
SaaS designed, not deployed SAAS_ARCHITECTURE.md; commercial licences to negotiate (auctionhouse.fyi)
Screenshot OCR not provided The addon export is more reliable; revisit only if needed